It’s a record-breaking year for Democrats. State by state, Democratic Senate and House candidates are setting the fundraising pace, collecting tens of millions of dollars to deploy against Republicans.

During the first quarter of 2026, Texas candidate James Talarico collected an unprecedented $27 million, including $10 million since he won his March 3rd primary. Jon Ossoff raised more than $14 million in Georgia, while North Carolina’s Roy Cooper raked in almost the same amount. Meanwhile, polling shows Democrats expanding their lead on Republicans in generic congressional ballots. The Left is particularly optimistic about the Iran War and inflation weighing on support for pro-Trump Republicans.

Facing some political headwinds, many Republicans are ringing alarm bells. It is conventional wisdom to put the nail in the coffin of GOP hopes to retain Senate control, as House control remains in the balance. Money matters immensely in campaign politics.

But donor dollars are not destiny. In 2020, 2022, and 2024, Republicans proved that they could be outraised significantly and still win. Leading up to Election Day, Kamala Harris outraised President Trump three-to-one, and we all know how that turned out in battleground states. History wrote the same story in 2016, when Hillary Clinton outraised Trump threefold.

In 2024, Bernie Moreno in Ohio and Tim Sheehy in Montana won Senate seats after raising under $30 million each. Their incumbent opponents, Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown, each raised over $90 million. It didn’t work.

In 2022, then-Senator Marco Rubio was outraised in Florida by his Democratic challenger, Val Demings. Rubio raised nearly $43 million, while Demings secured over $79 million. Today, Demings is out of politics, while Rubio is one of the world’s most powerful figures as U.S. Secretary of State.

Joining Rubio as a leading foreign policy voice is Senator Lindsey Graham (R-SC). In 2020, Graham raised more than any other Republican Senate candidate during the general election: $109 million. Yet his 2020 opponent, former Democratic National Committee Chair Jaime Harrison, collected more than $130 million (including $57 million in the third quarter alone). Harrison lost by 10 points on Election Day.

This is not to suggest that campaign finance is irrelevant. To the contrary, well-funded candidates and campaigns are better positioned to deliver messages to voters and drown out their opponents’ attacks. Effective fundraising is often a signal of candidate quality, but Democrats would be foolish to rest on their laurels this early in the race.

In 2026, Republican National Committees are actually outraising their counterparts on the Left, suggesting the “MAGA Majority” program is more popular than mainstream media headlines may suggest. The GOP is also leaning into joint fundraising committees to purchase advertising at lower rates. This can save millions of dollars per race, mitigating certain fundraising disadvantages.

At the same time, Republicans are winning the redistricting war. Seats are swinging more red than expected months ago, especially in southern states. To quote Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R-IN), “If you put Democrats and Republicans in our corners, we have more districts for us than them.”

Stutzman continued, “There’s a real chance we win the House.” And he’s right, but optimism quickly turns into overconfidence. For Republicans to sustain their newfound momentum, fundraising campaigns need to be sustained. Sending cannot stop, as long as it doesn’t come across as spam. In today’s day and age of artificial intelligence, voters are increasingly concerned about spammers bombarding their inboxes, and misleading messages leave a sour taste. Whether it’s actual spam or just seems like it, poor messaging hurts all small-dollar fundraising for Republicans. Authenticity is key (for Democrats too).

AI can be a curse, but it is also a blessing. Using new technologies, candidates and campaigns are more adept at identifying and focusing on known openers and loyal users, building a strong base of small-dollar support and steadily growing their list.

But that doesn’t mean treating donors like checkbooks. Even popular candidates run into trouble when the overwhelming majority of emails, text messages, and phone calls are money-related. This leads to oversaturation. There is more to voter engagement than fundraising. Voters need to feel like they’re part of a team and a movement, rather than some campaign in need of quick cash.

Fundraising is most effective when candidates, campaigns, and their consultants stick to best practices. That’s what produces victory in November.

Otherwise, funds do nothing to avoid failure. Republicans are poised to perform in 2026, but November is still a lifetime away.

Read the full article in The Hill.

Maggie Paulin serves as Vice President of Client Services at Campaign Solutions.